LLM hallucinations in the wild: Large-scale evidence from non-existent citations

LLM HDFE HDCE AI Safety / AI Ethics AFBD
大语言模型(LLMs)在多种情境下均被证实会生成看似合理实则错误的信息,然而此类“幻觉”问题在现实世界中的实际规模及其后果迄今仍缺乏充分认识。本研究利用一种具有独特可验证性的对象——科学文献引文——对arXiv、bioRxiv、SSRN和PubMed Central四大开放获取平台中总计250万篇论文所含的1.11亿条参考文献进行了系统性核查。结果发现,在大语言模型被广泛采用之后,虚构引文数量急剧上升;仅以保守估计,2025年一年内即出现高达146,932条幻觉引文。这些错误虽分散嵌入于大量论文之中,但在人工智能技术采纳速度较快的学科领域、文本语言特征明显体现AI辅助写作痕迹的稿件,以及作者团队规模较小或由早期职业研究者组成的团队所发表的成果中尤为突出。与此同时,幻觉引文不成比例地将学术贡献归功于本已声望卓著且多为男性的学者,表明大语言模型生成的错误可能进一步加剧科学界既有的认可不平等现象。预印本平台的审核机制与期刊出版流程仅能拦截其中极小一部分此类错误,说明幻觉内容的扩散速度已远超现有质量保障体系的应对能力。综上所述,本研究揭示:大语言模型的幻觉现象正以规模化方式渗入知识生产体系,不仅危及未来科学发现的可靠性,也威胁其公平性——因为人类研究者与人工智能系统在开展后续研究时,均需持续依赖既有的科学文献基础。
Large language models (LLMs) are known to generate plausible but false information across a wide range of contexts, yet the real-world magnitude and consequences of this hallucination problem remain poorly understood. Here we leverage a uniquely verifiable object - scientific citations - to audit 111 million references across 2.5 million papers in arXiv, bioRxiv, SSRN, and PubMed Central. We find a sharp rise in non-existent references following widespread LLM adoption, with a conservative estimate of 146,932 hallucinated citations in 2025 alone. These errors are diffusely embedded across many papers but especially pronounced in fields with rapid AI uptake, in manuscripts with linguistic signatures of AI-assisted writing, and among small and early-career author teams. At the same time, hallucinated references disproportionately assign credit to already prominent and male scholars, suggesting that LLM-generated errors may reinforce existing inequities in scientific recognition. Preprint moderation and journal publication processes capture only a fraction of these errors, suggesting that the spread of hallucinated content has outpaced existing safeguards. Together, these findings demonstrate that LLM hallucinations are infiltrating knowledge production at scale, threatening both the reliability and equity of future scientific discovery as human and AI systems draw on the existing literature.
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